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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS REPORT

 

07/29/10 

 

  

 

 

 

The USD has shifted lower with an across the board downturn while positioning for a test of the next line of important

support levels. The focus is now on the 1.3125 area for EUR/USD which represents the 38.2% retracement from the 2009

cycle high. While we still sense the short term setup can allow for some pause, sustained breaks here particularly on a

weekly closing basis would shift the focus to the 1.35 area. Moreover, the DXY Index is quickly approaching the 81.44

support level and 50% retracement from the 2009 low.

With these levels intact, the short term setup suggests some consolidation is due given the extent of the declines, proximity

of the key levels and the state of the current momentum setup. In that regard, we note that a number of USD pairs reflect an

extreme momentum condition coupled with a divergent setup. Importantly, while some pause can develop from here, the

risks continue to point to additional USD weakness beyond any consolidation phase that can develop.

In that regard, we still see an important test for AUD/USD at the .9075/.9110 resistance zone which includes the 76.4%

retracement from the April peak (.9078). Similarly, NZD/USD failed to sustain above the key .7300/30 April highs while

failing at the next zone of key resistance at .7383/.7443 which includes the similar Fib retracement levels. Importantly, the

overbought and diverging momentum setup is consistent with the view for additional short term consolidation. Note that

today’s NZD underperformance has led to a potential short term base breakout in AUD/NZD through the key

1.23625/1.2410 resistance zone while raising the risk of a deeper upside retracement. Also, USD/CAD has thus far

effectively held key support at the 1.0277/60 support area (mid-July low and April upTL) while suggesting additional pause

in line with the oversold and diverging momentum setup.

A key focus stays on USD/JPY as the failure against the key June downtrendline resistance is intact. As we’ve highlighted

over the past few days, the price action from the July low still reflects an overall corrective bias which seems consistent

with the view for new lows. As such, the 88.00/12 area should maintain the more immediate downside bias for new lows.

 

Trade Strategies:

Long 1 unit EUR/ZAR from 9.4936 risking 9.30 targeting 10.0340.

Long 1 unit EUR/AUD from 1.4804 risking 1.4170 targeting 1.6350.

Long 1 unit EUR/SEK from 9.5327 risking 9.38 targeting 9.9500.

 

DXY Index – daily

The decline is extending into the

next line of important support at

the 81.44 area.

Again, this zone includes the 50%

retracement of the advance from

the 2009 low.

In line with the oversold and

diverging momentum setup, we

sense some short term

consolidation is likely to develop.

Near term bounces should find

resistance at 82.40. Still, the

83.45/83.57 area should act as a

short term cap.

Note that beyond any short term

consolidation, the risks point to

new lows with deeper targets

located near 80/79.70.

 

USD/JPY – daily

The reversal from

yesterday’s high

continues to develop after

failing at the key

downtrendline from the

June peak.

This suggests additional

short term weakness is

likely to develop

particularly following the

corrective retracement

from the 86.27 low

With the 88.12 resistance

intact, a closer test of the

86.27 low is likely with

potential for new lows

into the 85.60 area, if not

the 84.82 November ’09

low.

 

USD/MXN – daily

The near term pause

continues to develop after

testing and holding the

key April trendline

support near 12.6150.

While additional pause

can develop over the near

term, note that the

downside risks remain

intact.

Trendline violations

should put the focus on

the 12.42 June low, but

also suggest a growing

risk that the range is

potentially breaking

down.

 

 

 

 

Daily Settlements for MXN/USD Futures (FINAL)Trade Date: 07/28/2010
Month Open High Low Last Change Settle Estimated
Volume
Prior Day
Open Interest
AUG 10 - - - - -50 78675 - -
SEP 10 78450 78875 78175 - -50 78400 14,278 79,715
OCT 10 - - - - -50 78175 - -
NOV 10 - - - - -50 77875 - -
DEC 10 77975 78050B 77425A - -50 77625 10 226
JAN 11 - - - - -50 77475 - -
FEB 11 - - - - -50 77175 - -
MAR 11 - - - - -50 76850 - 267
APR 11 - - - - -50 76625 - -
MAY 11 - - - - -50 76275 - -
JUN 11 - - - - -50 76075 - -
JLY 11 - - - - -50 75875 - -
AUG 11 - - - - -50 75675 - -
SEP 11 - - - - -50 75250 - 1
DEC 11 - - - - -50 74350 - -
Total 14,288 80,209

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 
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