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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS REPORT

 

 

 

 02/08/10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The USD is attempting to follow-through to last week’s sharp rally amid the broad deleveraging process. While today’s action is a bit tempered relative to last week’s trade, the overall setup for additional USD strength remains intact given the potential for further risk-unwind. Again, this follows the one-way breakout through a number of important levels last week particularly for EUR/USD, GBP/USD and the Dollar Index. Importantly, last week’s breakout through the critical 1.3830/1.3720 support in EUR/USD and 79.50/80.10 resistance zone for the Dollar Index are consistent with a continuation of the current trends. Note that EUR/USD now sees important support in the 1.35/1.34 area, which includes the 61.8% retracement from the March ’09 low. Moreover, Cable is testing the key channel support from the August high at 1.5533. However, beyond a near term consolidation, there is little evidence of a sustained reversal.

We note that both AUD/USD and NZD/USD see an important test this week given the proximity of the 200-day moving averages. As such, we have been hesitant to sell here but will look for near term corrective bounces to establish short positions particularly against last week’s breakdown levels.

For USD/JPY, the near term bounce continues to develop following the test and hold of the key 88.55/25 support area, which includes the daily cloud support. We see a more compelling story for the crosses though with a number of important medium term support levels in play. The highlight of this is the 76.30/40 medium term range lows for AUD/JPY, as breaks here would confirm an extended decline is in the works. Moreover, GBP/JPY is hovering around the Q4 range lows near 139.30, while CAD/JPY continues to hold the Jan ’09 uptrendline at 82.52.

For the Latams, we see several important tests as well. As CLP maintains an overall negative bias, we note USD/CLP is pulling back from important resistance in the 555/563 zone while suggesting some short term consolidation. Similarly, USD/BRL is quickly approaching the critical 1.90/1.92 area.

Trade Strategies:

  • Short 1 unit EUR/USD from 1.3687 risking 1.3875 targeting 1.3100
  • Short 1 unit GBP/USD from 1.5680 risking 1.5870 targeting 1.5275
  • Short 1 unit EUR/MXN from 19.3369 risking 19.00 targeting 16.70/15.50.
  • Short 1 unit NZD/NOK from 4.1558 risking 4.2920 targeting 3.70.

 

 

Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Mexico’s peso will probably strengthen this year as
foreign investors increase their presence and
the economy rebounds from the recession, Deputy Finance Minister Alejandro
Werner said.


Volatility in global markets that has caused the peso to weaken in recent days
has postponed the currency’s recovery,
Werner said. The peso fell the most in almost two months yesterday after a
report showed more Americans filed first-time
claims for unemployment insurance last week.


“As the Mexican economy shows a better growth path, it’s probable that
there will be an important arrival of capital and a
strengthening of the currency,” Werner said in an interview at Bloomberg’s
office in London. “With these movements in the
markets in recent days, this will be postponed.”


The currency gained 4.4 percent last year, the seventh- worst performance
against the dollar among the 16 most-traded
currencies, ending 2009 at 13.0914 per U.S. dollar.


Mexico’s $1.09 trillion economy posted the biggest slump in Latin America
last year, shrinking 10.1 percent in the second
quarter and 6.2 percent in the third quarter. It probably shrank around 7
percent in 2009, the most since 1932, according
to the central bank.


Mexico’s gross domestic product may rise more in 2010 than the government’s
forecast of 3 percent, Werner said.


The central bank forecasts that the economy may expand as much as 4.2 percent.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. yesterday raised its
2010 economic growth forecast for Mexico to 4.5 percent from 3.5 percent,
citing a recovery in manufacturing and improving
domestic demand.


The peso declined this week on U.S. jobs data and concern that Spain, Portugal
and Greece will struggle to finance their
budget deficits, eroding demand for higher-yielding, emerging- market
currencies.


Initial jobless applications in the U.S. increased to 480,000 in the week ended
Jan. 30, the most in seven weeks, from
472,000 the prior week, Labor Department figures showed.


The currency slid 1.6 percent yesterday to 13.1659 per U.S. dollar, from
12.9500 on Feb. 3. It was the biggest one-day
drop since Dec. 8.


In trading today, the peso weakened 0.2 percent to 13.1885 at 11:39 a.m. New
York time. For the year, the peso has lost
0.8 percent, the fourth-best performance against the dollar among the 16
most-traded currencies.

 

 

 

Daily Settlements for MXN/USD Futures (FINAL)Trade Date: 02/05/2010
Month Open High Low Last Change Settle Estimated
Volume
Prior Day
Open Interest
FEB 10 - - - - -675 75725 - 2
MAR 10 75700 76000 75100 75325 -680 75425 48,039 90,911
APR 10 - - - - -675 75150 - -
MAY 10 - - - - -675 74850 - -
JUN 10 74800 75075B 74300A - -675 74575 121 1,438
JLY 10 - - - - -675 74300 - -
AUG 10 - - - - -675 74000 - -
SEP 10 - - - - -675 73700 - 25
OCT 10 - - - - -675 73425 - -
NOV 10 - - - - -675 73125 - -
DEC 10 - - - - -675 72825 - -
JAN 11 - - - - -675 72525 - -
FEB 11 - - - - -675 72225 - -
MAR 11 - - - - -675 71875 - 267
JUN 11 - - - - -675 70925 - -
Total 48,160 92,643

 

 


 
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